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An analytical framework to assist decision makers in the use of forest ecosystem model predictions

Summary

Published in Environmental Modelling & Software 26(3): 280-288

The predictions from most forest ecosystem models originate from deterministic simulations. However, few evaluation exercises for model outputs are performed by either model developers or users. This issue has important consequences for decision makers using these models to develop natural resource management policies, as they cannot evaluate the extent to which predictions stemming from the simulation of alternative management scenarios may result in significant environmental or economic differences. Various numerical methods, such as sensitivity/uncertainty analyses, or bootstrap methods, may be used to evaluate models and the errors associated with their outputs. However, the application of each of these methods carries unique challenges which decision makers do not necessarily understand; guidance is required when interpreting the output generated from each model. This paper proposes a decision flow chart in the form of an analytical framework to help decision makers apply, in an orderly fashion, different steps involved in examining the model outputs. The analytical framework is discussed with regard to the definition of problems and objectives and includes the following topics: model selection, identification of alternatives, modelling tasks and selecting alternatives for developing policy or implementing management scenarios. Its application is illustrated using an on-going exercise in developing silvicultural guidelines for a forest management enterprise in Ontario, Canada.

Sector(s): 

Forests

Categorie(s): 

Scientific Article

Theme(s): 

Forestry Research, Forests

Departmental author(s): 

Mailly, Daniel

Author(s)

LAROCQUE, Guy, R., J.-S. BHATTI , J.-C. ASCOUGH II, J. LIU, N. LUCKAI, Daniel MAILLY, Louis ARCHAMBAULT and A.-M. GORDON

Year of publication :

2011

Keywords :

schéma de décision, prise de décision, modélisation de l'écosystème, analyse d'incertitude, écosystèmes forestiers, decision flow chart, decision making, ecosystem modelling, uncertainty analysis, forest ecosystems, article scientifique de recherche forestière

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