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Northern protected areas will become important refuges for biodiversity tracking suitable climates

Summary

Published in Sci. Rep. 8(1): 4623. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-23050-w

The Northern Biodiversity Paradox predicts that, despite its globally negative effects on biodiversity, climate change will increase biodiversity in northern regions where many species are limited by low temperatures. We assessed the potential impacts of climate change on the biodiversity of a northern network of 1,749 protected areas spread over >600,000 km2 in Quebec, Canada. Using ecological niche modeling, we calculated potential changes in the probability of occurrence of 529 species to evaluate the potential impacts of climate change on (1) species gain, loss, turnover, and richness in protected areas, (2) representativity of protected areas, and (3) extent of species ranges located in protected areas. We predict a major species turnover over time, with 49% of total protected land area potentially experiencing a species turnover >80%. We also predict increases in regional species richness, representativity of protected areas, and species protection provided by protected areas. Although we did not model the likelihood of species colonising habitats that become suitable as a result of climate change, northern protected areas should ultimately become important refuges for species tracking climate northward. This is the first study to examine in such details the potential effects of climate change on a northern protected area network.

Sector(s): 

Forests

Categorie(s): 

Scientific Article

Theme(s): 

Ecosystems and Environment, Forestry Research, Forests

Departmental author(s): 

Périé, Catherine

Author(s)

BERTEAUX, Dominique, Marylène RICARD, Martin-Hugues ST-LAURENT, Nicolas CASAJUS, Catherine PÉRIÉ, Frieda BEAUREGARD and Sylvie DE BLOIS

Year of publication :

2018

Format :

PDF available upon request

Keywords :

aires protégées, changements climatiques, paradoxe de la biodiviersité nordique, modélisation des niches écologiques, forestry research scientific article

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