Predicting the location of maple habitat under warming scenarios in two regions at the northern range in Canada

Published in For. Sci. https://doi.org/10.1093/forsci/fxab012

Acer saccharum and Acer rubrum, two main maple species in North America, will be affected by ongoing global warming. Several studies predict a southern limit contraction but limited northward expansion of maple distribution for the future. We aimed to understand the main drivers of current maple distribution to quantify potential changes to maple habitat in this context. We identified the local conditions of maple stands and assessed the potential changes under warming scenarios. We selected two regions in Quebec, Canada, at the northern distribution of the species and applied probability distribution function and principal component analysis to identify the factors explaining the occurrence of maple compared with other forest species, croplands, and grasslands. Maple habitat was estimated under warming scenarios up to 2°C. We observed a lower density of maple stands in the north (7.76 %), compared to the south (33.01 %). Warming increased maple stands by 3.54 and 1.45 % in the northernmost and southernmost regions, respectively, with the highest increases being estimated at the initial warming (+1.0°C). We conclude that maple of northern regions can benefit from local warming if precipitation does not become limiting. These changes could increase the potential for the regional maple industry and forest management.

Study Implications : Future warming may enhance the opportunities to exploit maple and its products at the northern boundary of this species, under a sufficient precipitation regime. Plantations could be considered in habitats favorable for maple, which would allow the value of the resource at the northern edge of the temperate mixedwood forest to be increased. Our spatially explicit outcomes will encourage forest managers and small landowners to plan new maple plantations. The local maple industry and forest management in northern regions could benefit from such an increase in maple habitat and enhanced production of hardwood species.

Forests

Scientific Article

Ecosystems and Environment, Forest Ecology, Forestry Research, Forests, Silviculture

Raymond, Patricia, Sylvain, Jean-Daniel

JAIN, Pratiksha, Siddhartha KHARE, Jean-Daniel SYLVAIN, Patricia RAYMOND et Sergio ROSSI

2021

PDF available upon request

Available at the Direction de la recherche forestière

0015-749X

article scientifique de la recherche forestière, changement climatique, aptitude au site, écologie forestière, écosystèmes et environnement, sylviculture et rendement des plantations, adaptation, Acer saccharum, Acer rubrum, climate change, site-suitability, ecosystems and environment, forest ecology, silviculture and yield of plantations, forestry research scientific article