by André Boily | 7 February 2022
Published in Global Change Biology 28(5): 1884-1902. https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16014
Many modelling approaches have been developed to project climate change impacts on forests. By analysing ‘comparable’ yet distinct variables (e.g. productivity, growth, dominance, biomass, etc.) through different structures, parameterizations and assumptions, models can yield different outcomes to rather similar initial questions. This variability can lead to some confusion for forest managers when developing strategies to adapt forest management to climate change. In this study, we standardized results from seven different models (Habitat suitability, trGam, StandLEAP, Quebec Landscape Dynamics, PICUS, LANDIS-II and LPJ-LMfire) to provide a simple and comprehensive assessment of the uncertainty and consensus in future performance (decline, status quo, improvement) for six tree species in Quebec under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5). Despite a large diversity of model types, we found a high level of agreement (73.1%) in projected species’ performance across species, regions, scenarios and time periods. Low agreements in model outcomes resulted from small dissensions among models. Model agreement was much higher for cold-tolerant species (up to 99.9%), especially in southernmost forest regions and under RCP 8.5, indicating that these species are especially sensitive to increased climate forcing in the southern part of their distribution range. Lower agreement was found for thermophilous species (sugar maple, yellow birch) in boreal regions under RCP 8.5 mostly as a result of the way the different models are handling natural disturbances (e.g. wildfires) and lags in the response of populations (forest inertia or migration capability) to climate change. Agreement was slightly higher under high anthropogenic climate forcing, suggesting that important thresholds in species-specific performance might be crossed if radiative forcing reach values as high as those projected under RCP 8.5. We expect that strong agreement among models despite their different assumptions, predictors and structure should inspire the development of forest management strategies to be better adapted to climate change.
by Audrey Verreault | 31 January 2022
Published in Current Forestry Reports 7(4): 305-320. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40725-021-00148-5
Climate change is modifying the dynamics of forests and threatens the supply of ecosystem services from managed forests. In response, managers are developing climate-adapted strategies, mostly focusing on changes in abiotic conditions. Ungulate populations, however, also impact forest integrity and productivity, and the effects of ungulate browsing likely interact with the effects of climate change. This raises the issue of whether climate-adapted strategies will be compatible with abundant ungulate populations. Here, we endeavour to (1) review if/how climate-adapted strategies currently consider ungulates and (2) to highlight how browsing could affect the success of these strategies, using a systematic mapping protocol and available knowledge of ungulate browsing.
by Audrey Verreault | 26 January 2022
This report focuses on biodemographic parameters primarily related to reproduction and mortality of anadromous Arctic char sampled in the Five Mile Inlet system north of the community of Inukjuak. One of the main objectives of this study is to establish a reference state for this species before any potential new development can occur in this area of Nunavik.
by Marie-Claude Boileau | 25 January 2022
Aerial surveys of the George River Caribou Herd (GRCH) have been conducted at two-year intervals since 2010. In 2018, the GRCH reached its lowest recorded population size of 5,500 caribou, a decline of over 99% since 1993.
A post-calving survey was conducted in July 2020, continuing the partnership between the governments of Newfoundland and Labrador and Québec. The GRCH population was estimated at 8,100 individuals (+/- 6%; α = 0.10) in 2020, indicating a 47% increase since 2018. This population growth is primarily due to a very high proportion of calves (35%). However, survival of this cohort to adulthood remains potentially low.
The improvement in adult survival is reflected in an approximate 24% increase in the number of adults in the population since 2018. While this demographic update is encouraging, the status of the GRCH remains precarious due to its continuing low abundance and variability in adult and calf survival.
A sequence of survey results showing sustained growth will thus be needed to confirm whether the herd has entered a recovery phase.
by Marie-Claude Boileau | 11 November 2021
Order made under the Quebec Fishery Regulations (1990) which modifies the content of this Regulation with regard to the periods, quotas, fishing gear and methods and the length or weight limits for fish applicable to the sport fishing for an area or part of it.
